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market update

San Francisco Real Estate Market:
January 2025 Report

San Francisco’s housing market saw a slight rebound in 2024 after experiencing big blows across the board in 2023. The numbers were better in just about every category - from median sales prices to prices per square foot and  fewer days on market. These numbers are still a far cry from the hot market seen in 2021, but point to a more balanced market ahead, barring political, economic or other external forces.


Interest rate volatility continued to prey on the minds of buyers across the nation, but San Francisco’s all-cash buyers, who made up approximately 26% of home purchases, helped to stabilize the market. The luxury market remained relatively resilient, driven by international buyers and affluent professionals. In fact, of the 97 homes sold above $5,000,000, 47% were by all-cash buyers. Those buyers who did secure loans adjusted to the new normal of higher rates, plunking down the highest average down payment in the nation (25.8%), with some opting for more affordable adjustable-rate loan products.


While the City continues to grapple with the lingering effects of the pandemic, signs of life include employees being summoned back to their offices, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (accounting for about 20% of office leases in the last 18 months), and a new administration bringing hope and excitement.

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Keep an eye on zoning and development changes in San Francisco, with local policies playing a critical role in addressing the city's longstanding housing shortage. Efforts to increase density and streamline approval processes for new projects could gradually improve affordability yet impact prices. Also consider broader economic trends, as San Franciscans are keenly aware of national economic stability, including employment rates and consumer confidence. San Francisco's economic reliance on the tech industry ties its fortunes closely to broader tech sector trends.


It’s also worth noting that there was significant confusion about the changing real estate industry practices as a result of the National Association of Realtors’ settlement to resolve lawsuits about commissions. As part of the settlement, commission structures were changed leading to the requirement for buyers to sign compensation agreements with their agents before viewing properties. This shift introduced both complexities and confusion, potentially adding costs for buyers.


Overall, the San Francisco real estate market in 2024 reflected a delicate balance between broader economic pressures and local dynamics. While challenges such as affordability and high interest rates persist, the city's enduring appeal ensures that it remains a sought-after market. Buyers and sellers should prepare for a cautious market environment, with opportunities emerging for those who adapt to changing conditions. The year ahead will likely bring continued evolution, underscoring San Francisco's resilience and adaptability in the face of economic change.

San Francisco Median House Sales Prices (1993-2024)

The median sales price for a single family home in December 2024 was $1,600,000, slightly higher than the $1,550,000 median price from December 2023 (although still lower than the post-pandemic boom of 2021). Sales volume in 2024 was up as well with 2,168 homes sold compared to 1,886 homes sold in 2023.

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*Data provided by the California Association of Realtors’ Historical Housing Data.

Percent Changes of Single-Family Home Sales in San Francisco

Buyer and seller confidence regained some footing in 2024, after a dramatic two-year drop in sales activity. Although interest rates remained volatile, buyers seem to be adjusting to the new normal and seizing opportunities, armed with either all-cash offers or more rate-friendly adjustable rate loans. We cannot predict what will happen in 2025, but early anecdotal indications (signed listings, buyer broker agreements signed) point to a robust spring sales season.

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*Data provided by the California Association of Realtors’ Historical Housing Data.

Mortgage Rates Continue Their Upward Trend

In the first full week of the new year, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained elevated at just under seven percent. The continued strength of the economy has put upward pressure on mortgage rates, and along with high home prices, continues to impact housing affordability. The lack of entry-level supply also remains an issue, especially for those looking to become first-time homeowners.

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*Data and information provided from Freddie Mac.

Average Days on Market

The graph below covers a two-year period, displayed monthly, focusing on the average days homes (dark blue line) and condos (light blue line) spend on the market in San Francisco. The DOM is the time from when a property is first listed until it goes pending. Homes generally sell faster than condos, and benefit from a steady demand. Condo sales are more volatile, although seasonal fluctuations impact both property types, with condos more sensitive to changing market conditions.

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Median Price Per Square Foot

The graph below follows the price per square foot for all residential properties sold in San Francisco from 2005 through 2024. The post-pandemic spike brought the price per square foot to approximately $1,150, with a significant decline in 2023. Throughout most of 2024, the median price per square foot improved and hovered at about $1,000, with typical seasonal fluctuations.

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*Data provided by San Francisco MLS InfoSparks.

Median Condo Prices in San Francisco

The median sales price for a condominium in December 2024 was $1,135,000, slightly higher than the $1,121,500 median price from December 2023 (although still lower than the post-pandemic boom of 2021-22, with the highest median at $1,250,000). Sales volume in 2024 was up as well with 2,023 condos sold compared to 1,851 condos sold in 2023.

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*Data provided by San Francisco MLS InfoSparks.

Months of Supply Inventory
(MSI)

The supply and demand dynamic is expressed through MSI. Months supply matters, as do the directional movements (up or down) over time. MSI declined sharply over the last two months, indicating the market is becoming more favorable to sellers.

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*Data provided by San Francisco MLS InfoSparks.

Let's talk about your real estate goals

Whether buying or selling... or thinking about buying or selling... we should talk! Set up some time and let's connect.

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CLAY GJEVRE

415.793.7633

DRE 02099237

VANTAGE REALTY

1980 Union Street

San Francisco CA  94123

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California License DRE 02099237

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