San Francisco Housing Market Update: The “Secret” Window for Home Sellers
- Clay Gjevre
- 4 days ago
- 5 min read
By Clay Gjevre
Selling a Home in San Francisco? Why January Can Be the “Secret Sellers Window”
Most homeowners assume spring is the best time to sell a house. In San Francisco real estate, that’s often true—but not always. When inventory collapses in December and buyers are still active, January can become a rare moment where well-prepped listings get outsized attention—before the spring “flood” of new competition arrives.
This San Francisco real estate market update breaks down what the latest numbers are signaling, how buyers behave during the holidays, and how to prep and price so your listing shows up as the obvious “new” option when buyers are hungry.
The setup: December inventory drops, and January listings stand out
Here’s the basic dynamic: inventory falls hard in December, and the market gets filled with older/stale listings. As of December 1, active and coming-soon listings were down about 35% year over year—a steep seasonal decline.
Why that matters for San Francisco home selling:
Buyers spend weeks scrolling the same options.
New, turnkey listings feel rare.
“Fresh hits” can grab attention faster—especially early in January.
If you’ve been asking “Should I wait to sell?” the real question becomes: wait for more buyers… or wait for more competition?
San Francisco housing market snapshot: prices, overbids, and speed
Prices (houses + condos)
Recent data showed the 3-month rolling median for houses in November around $1.8M, up roughly 9% year over year (and the highest since 2022).
Two-bedroom condo medians were also up year over year (the script notes ~6.5% YoY and highest since 2022).
Overbidding (houses vs condos are not the same game)
Overbidding is where the story gets sharp:
About 62% of sales closed over list overall.
Houses: roughly 82% closed over list, averaging about 16% above original list price.
Condos: about 44% closed over list, averaging about 1.5% above.
Translation: single-family homes and condos are playing different games—and your strategy should match your property type.
Days on Market (DOM): the “visible scoreboard”
Average days on market in November were about 42 days overall, with houses around 26 days and condos around 55 days.
And here’s the winter-specific warning: once a listing crosses roughly 21–30 days in winter, buyers start assuming something is wrong.
Buyer psychology in December/January: two buyer groups show up
If you want top-dollar outcomes, it helps to understand how buyers behave during the holidays—because buyer behavior dictates your leverage.
1) The negotiators (hunting older listings)
A large share of active inventory is “older” right now:
~57% of active listings are on market 60+ days
~32% are 90+ days
~15% are 180+ days
Those are the listings negotiators target.
2) The pouncers (waiting for January drops)
There’s also a cohort that’s pre-underwritten, has studied micro-markets, and moves fast when something good hits in January.
That’s the cohort you want competing for your listing.
Rates matter, too
The script notes mortgage rates hovering near a 14-month low around the low sixes (Freddie Mac reference).Lower rates don’t guarantee bidding wars—but they can increase the number of serious buyers who re-enter the search.
Preparing your SF home for sale: the “low-friction” listing formula
Whether you’re searching for a San Francisco real estate agent or already planning to list, the January strategy is simple:
Be the safest, cleanest, easiest “yes” on the market.
Step 1: Build a clean file
Full disclosures
Home + pest pre-inspections
For condos: a complete HOA packet (budget, reserves, reserve study, assessment history)
Step 2: Stage like it’s a pricing tool (because it is)
Staging isn’t decor—it’s designed to reduce friction and make the home feel move-in ready. Photos are effectively the first showing, and presentation impacts how aggressively buyers bid.
Step 3: Price with the right playbook (house vs condo)
For move-in-ready houses in A-tier pockets: strategic underpricing can still work if comps support it.For homes with real downsides: price closer to what you’d happily accept—don’t “game it.”For condos: win with certainty and building health; price with layout/light/HOA strength in mind.
The January launch timeline: compress DOM and force decision speed
In January, momentum is everything. The script’s recommended runway:
Launch mid-week
Hit strong weekend opens
Set a clear offer date
Require proof of funds + pre-approval
If you slip past two weekends without traction, adjust decisively (token price cuts don’t fix DOM).
This is how to compress days on market and concentrate attention while the competitive field is smaller.
Market update terms: quick definitions (so the numbers actually help you)
Active / Coming Soon: homes available now vs queued to launch soon (helps track inventory pressure).
Rolling median: a smoothed price metric (less noisy than one-month snapshots).
Over list / overbid: how often and how far the final price exceeds list price.
DOM (Days on Market): the public “scoreboard” buyers use to judge desirability—especially sensitive in winter.
“What is my home worth in San Francisco?” Start here.
A credible pricing opinion usually comes from:
Recent sold comps (same micro-neighborhood, similar condition)
Current competition (what buyers can choose instead today)
Property-type trends (SFH vs condo behaving differently)
A clear plan: “pricing to create competition” vs “pricing to accept a number”
If you want a fast reality check, use this rule of thumb from the winter playbook: the goal is to be fresh, safe, and easy to say yes to—before DOM starts working against you.
FAQ
Is January really a good time for selling a home in SF?It can be—especially when inventory is down sharply and buyers are restless, because new listings stand out more.
How do condos differ from single-family homes right now?Houses are seeing meaningfully stronger overbidding behavior (82% closing over list; ~16% avg above list), while condos are more selective (~44% over list; ~1.5% avg above).
What’s the biggest mistake when listing in winter?Letting DOM drift. Once you cross ~21–30 days in winter, buyers often assume something is wrong and negotiations get harder.
Bottom line: list before the spring flood (if the prep is right)
January isn’t about panic-selling. It’s about timing your launch when the field is thinner and buyer attention is concentrated, then backing it up with a clean file, strong presentation, and a tight timeline.
For homeowners looking for a San Francisco top listing agent or a Top Agent San Francisco who’s data-driven and strategy-forward, this is exactly where a sharp plan can change the outcome: pricing, prep, and calendar—built around the January window.
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Clay Gjevre San Francisco Realtor®
Vantage Realty
DRE 02099237