San Francisco Real Estate Market Update – September 2025
- Clay Gjevre
- Sep 26, 2025
- 3 min read
by Clay Gjevre
San Francisco Real Estate Market Update
San Francisco’s housing market is showing fresh signs of movement this fall. With the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since 2024, luxury condo sales surging in the $7–$10 million range, and inventory tightening across the city, buyers and sellers alike are watching the shifts closely. Here’s what the numbers mean for you if you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in San Francisco real estate.
Interest Rates Drop – Buyers Return
In September, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing mortgage rates down to their lowest point in three years. As of mid-September, the 30-year fixed sits around 6.26% and the 15-year near 5.41%, down from earlier highs above 7%. Lower borrowing costs are pulling buyers off the sidelines, especially those who had been priced out in 2023–24.
The takeaway? When rates hit the “magical” affordability zone, competition for move-in-ready homes is expected to heat up quickly. Buyers who act now can avoid future bidding wars by locking in homes before rates dip further. The smart play: buy now, refinance later.
San Francisco Luxury Condos Surge
The high-end condo market is back in motion, with tech-driven buyers leading the charge. Closings between $7–$10 million are happening at properties like 181 Fremont, Four Seasons Private Residences, and One Steuart Lane. These buyers are drawn to San Francisco’s AI-driven economy, unmatched views, and luxury lifestyle.
For sellers in this segment, smart home technology and seamless integration with platforms like HomeKit or Google Home are becoming must-haves. Highlighting lifestyle, amenities, and connectivity can make all the difference in attracting this new wave of luxury buyers.
Mortgage Rate Outlook
Markets are betting on at least two more cuts this year, with futures trading pointing to as many as three. If you’re holding a loan from 2023 or 2024 at higher rates, refinancing now could save thousands annually. The combination of falling Treasury yields and a softer economic outlook is likely to keep rates favorable for buyers into 2026.
The Bigger Housing Cycle
History shows every downturn recovers. The early 1980s, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic all triggered housing slowdowns, yet each time sales bounced back. Today’s slowdown is more of a “thaw” than a surge, with experts expecting a gradual rebound starting in 2026 as inventory normalizes and rates stabilize.
San Francisco by the Numbers
Sales: August showed stability, with single-family home sales down 1.38% year-over-year and condos up 0.74%.
Pricing: Single-family homes closed at an average of 111.9% of list price, reflecting multiple offers and over-asking. Condos averaged 97.3%, leaving more room for negotiation.
Inventory: Single-family listings dropped 17.5% year-over-year, and condo listings fell 22.7%. With limited new construction, supply is likely to remain tight.
Days on Market: Single-family homes averaged just 15 days, while condos averaged 50 days—giving buyers more leverage in the condo market.
Months of Supply (MSI): 1.1 months for houses (strong seller’s market) and 2.8 months for condos (leaning seller’s market, but with flexibility).
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
Buyers: Move quickly on well-priced, turnkey homes—competition is fierce. Condo buyers can take advantage of slower pace and stronger negotiation power.
Sellers: Presentation matters. For single-family homes, buyers are paying premiums for homes ready to go. Condo sellers should emphasize HOA strength, amenities, and lifestyle value to stand out.
The San Francisco housing market remains competitive but full of opportunity. Whether you’re looking to buy your first home, upgrade into a larger property, or sell a condo in a luxury tower, timing and strategy are everything.
San Francisco Real Estate Market
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📧 Email: Clay@ClayGjevre.com
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Clay Gjevre San Francisco Realtor®
Vantage Realty
DRE 02099237
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